The commercialization of new energy vehicles breaks through the three modes of consumption trajectory

In 2020, the number of cars in China's auto market will reach 200 million. Concerns about environmental protection, transportation and energy will intensify.

Cheng Fei integrated into the lithium battery staged a series of upswings, fully opened up the new energy vehicle battery space;

The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology took the lead in drafting the "New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan" in August. The central government's investment of 100 billion yuan in the next ten years will bring the total number of new energy vehicles to 5 million.

Behind the ostentatious slogans and banners, China Securities Journal reporters went to grassroots research institutes of new energy vehicles such as Chery, BYD, and Zotye to find out that new energy auto companies are struggling to explore and use new energy vehicles. Breaking through, BYD's electric car E6 has run as a taxi on the streets of Shenzhen. Chery’s pure electric vehicles are also sold in the urban area of ​​Hefei. The company sells the first pure electric car to individuals.

Taxi first, or rent-a-sale, it is too early to tell which model is more suitable for promoting electric vehicles. Yuan Tao, deputy general manager of Chery Automobile's new energy vehicle, said, “Developing new energy vehicles can't just shout a banner, or do it down-to-earth and seriously implement pilot demonstrations. The development of new energy vehicles is of course burning money, but burning It's hope."

And really want to generate hope, break through in the business model, but also the gradual breakthrough in battery technology, changes in consumer attitudes of automotive users, the acceleration of supporting facilities such as charging piles, the formulation of specific industry standards for electric vehicles, and further development of industrial development policies Care and so on.

Luo Lei, deputy secretary-general of the China Automobile Dealers Association, believes that from the previous period of government procurement to guide consumption patterns, to agencies and groups to purchase and promote new energy vehicles, and then to consumers to buy real money, the realization of the three segments of new energy vehicle consumption requires one Time, it is expected that new energy vehicles will make breakthroughs in 3 to 5 years, and the long-term goal of sales of 5 million new energy vehicles by 2020 is achievable.

BYD breaks with the taxi market

The Shenzhen Yitian route is heading south and north. A red and white taxi with both SUV and MPV crossover borders the reporter and many cars in front of it. Its tail slogans are striking: “This is not a regular car. This is a declaration of environmental protection."

“Is that car not the E6 electric car we just tested?” the colleague in the same car said happily. On the morning of September 9, the China Securities Journal reporter had the privilege of testing and driving a BYD E6 pure electric vehicle at the BYD headquarters. E6 is between the sports car and the sedan. The body is obviously higher than the ordinary car. Its own car weight is also relatively large, with 2.35 tons. Open the door, first found that the dashboard did not see the oil dial, replaced by the meter disk, ignition, step on the brakes, left foot to help brake, light step on the throttle, everything is not different from the operation of high-end cars. However, after starting the car, the roar of the motor could not be heard. After stepping on the accelerator, the 100-meter acceleration accelerated with only 7 seconds of acceleration, giving the reporter a clear sense of pushback.

According to the Shenzhen Municipal Government's plan, a total of 24,000 new energy vehicles, including passenger cars, will be launched by 2012, corresponding to 200 charging stations. To this end, based on the existing policy of subsidizing 60,000 yuan for the central subsidy of pure electric vehicles, the Shenzhen municipal government will subsidize 60,000 yuan, accumulatively subsidizing 120,000 yuan. At present, the Shenzhen Municipal Government has allowed the relevant companies to fill in the subsidy application form to investigate and find out.

Shenzhen Pengcheng Electric Vehicle Rental Co., Ltd. is a pilot company for the promotion of the electric vehicle market in Shenzhen City with a registered capital of RMB 20 million. The investment ratio of BYD and Pengcheng taxi companies is 45% and 55%, respectively, and is operated by Pengcheng taxi. Management, BYD E6 electric vehicle purchased model, BYD company responsible for data collection and daily maintenance. On May 1st this year, the first E6 pure electric vehicles were put into operation and have operated for nearly 5 months. The total number of E6 pure electric vehicles currently in operation is 50, and the total number of planned operations is 100. The other 50 vehicles will be delivered in December.

Peng Guang taxi company deputy general manager Li Guanghan said in an interview with a reporter from the China Securities Journal: “The original idea was that the E6 was able to run 100 kilometers a day and succeeded. I did not expect that it would be no problem to be able to run more than 200 kilometers. According to reports, the E6 has a nominal mileage of 300 kilometers. At present, the taxi company actually drives about 160-220 kilometers per day (the auxiliary power consumption such as air-conditioning is relatively large, and consumes about 60 kilometers of electricity per day). The average red taxi in Shenzhen will not exceed 250 kilometers in a single day operation. The E6 has basically met the needs of the taxi market. However, due to the small number of charging stations, there are currently only two, which can only be charged in turns. In the short term, electric vehicle rental companies all use single-shift operations.

Although the mileage of the E6 has yet to be improved, Li Guanghan's good energy-saving effect still makes him happy: “Electric vehicles can definitely succeed, and traditional cars are not comparable!”

According to his analysis, the average power consumption of E6 is about 47 degrees a day, according to the current industrial electricity price of RMB 1.06 yuan, the cost is about 50 yuan, the cost of one month is about 1,500 yuan; and the monthly cost of the traditional ordinary taxi is 6000 yuan. -7000 yuan. Therefore, from the standpoint of operations alone, the cost advantage of electric vehicles is very obvious.

At present, the sales price of E6 is 299,800 yuan, and the sales price of general taxis is about 80,000 yuan. After deducting government subsidies of 120,000 yuan, the market price of E6 still reaches 179,800 yuan, which is 99,800 yuan more than the average taxi. However, if you consider from the perspective of fuel economy performance, you will recover the cost without using it for three years.

In the situation where the charging convenience has not yet been resolved, it is an important market strategy for BYD to target customers to focus on government and group customers. Du Guozhong, the public relations manager of BYD, who is in charge of the E6 project, stated that the ultimate goal of the company is to enter the family car market at E6 and it will enter the US market by the end of this year. At present, it is hoped to use the taxi market to open up the situation.

China Securities Journal reporter learned that the governments of Shenzhen, Zhengzhou, Nanchang, etc., all intend to force a certain percentage of pure electric vehicles in the future taxi updates, thus promoting the marketization of electric vehicles.

Chery expands its customers with rental sales

Different from the BYD promotion model, Chery also adopted the "rent-to-sale" model. The China Securities Journal reporter visited Chery’s 4S shop for new energy vehicles in Hefei, which is a small 4S shop. From time to time, customers from time to time experience Chery’s pure electric vehicles.

Chen Guorui, deputy general manager of Hefei Yingfeng Car Leasing Co., Ltd., told the reporter that the company’s Chery electric vehicles are, in principle, 90 yuan per day. If the rent time is longer, you can extend the number of days, or give some insurance benefits.

Who is the main electric car rental? According to Chen Guorui, the number of rental users is now larger, both individuals and companies. Individuals are more representative of white-collar workers, income is still relatively good, while there is a strong sense of environmental protection, but there are some pressure on the car or keep a car, or have not yet reached the point where they need to buy a car. There are also some people who are more fashionable. Fresh things come out first to experience.

Yuan Tao, deputy general manager of Chery Automobile, believes that electric vehicles are mainly short-distance, personal means of transportation, and have a certain degree of competitiveness in the market segments. In particular, he pointed out that do not think that the electric car is to replace the gasoline car, the two are two different market segments, people who buy electric cars have their own use of demand.

The economic benefits of electric vehicles are obvious. Chen Guorui calculated a small account. At present, Chery’s electric car costs only 6 yuan for a hundred kilometers. The company’s maintenance and repairs are responsible for it. In contrast, the cost of a hundred kilometers of a fuel car is between 50 and 60 yuan. Money can save 1 to 2,000 a month, and it can save about 20,000 a year.

He Yufeng, general manager of Chery Automobile's Hefei Ferrysource franchise sales service store, is mainly responsible for the sales of Chery's new energy vehicles in Hefei. He pointed out that the use of electric vehicles now seems to be a kind of crab eating behavior. Although the degree of concern is high, If you want to buy something, the customer still has a lot of hesitation, especially some related supporting facilities in the country are not yet clear and established. Everyone may still have some psychological obstacles, but by renting and selling, you can let everyone experience the performance of this kind of vehicle first. And cost advantages.

As early as January 21st this year, Zotye Motor Co., Ltd. has already started commercial trial operation of 100 pure electric vehicles in the form of "lease trial operation" with a rental of 2,500 yuan/month. After half a year of trial operation, the advantages of energy-saving economy and environmental protection and comfort of Zhongtai Pure Electric Vehicle have been generally recognized by the market. On July 26th, China’s first pure electric vehicle for individual consumers was sold in Hangzhou and this time it was purchased. The consumer of Zotye 5008EV pure electric vehicle is one of the first batch of rental users of Zotye.

The Zotye 5008EV sold by Zhongtai was accompanied by a power battery, and the price of 108,000 yuan was actually paid by consumers after enjoying the national subsidy of 60,000 yuan and local subsidies in Hangzhou.

According to reports, Zotye Automobile currently has 3 platforms and 8 models of pure electric vehicles that have achieved a complete vehicle production catalog, and a number of products are under development. Zotye Automobile has formed a production capacity of 20,000 pure electric vehicles. In addition to the products with battery sales, the company will also launch “replacement mode” products for “naked car sales and battery rental”.

Mileage to be technological breakthrough

Luo Lei, deputy secretary-general of the China Automobile Dealers Association, pointed out that there are four major difficulties for electric vehicles: First, higher costs, second, supporting facilities, third, endurance, and fourth, battery life.

The feedback from electric vehicle customers also shows that the biggest problem that currently hinders the healthy development of electric vehicles is that the mileage of electric vehicles is too short. This involves two factors: the convenience of charging and the battery capacity density.

According to Li Guanghan, due to the fact that there are fewer charging stations and inconveniences have become the biggest bottleneck, far-reaching passengers with more than 70 kilometers of E6 operations are afraid to pick up and drop.

Shenzhen Pengcheng Electric Vehicle Rental Co., Ltd. currently has two charging stations built on its own, each of which includes three middle charging piles, three slow charging piles, and a total of 12 charging piles. The equipment is provided by BYD. According to the current statistics, the time for charging is 70 minutes and the time for slow charging is close to 4 hours. According to the plan, 100 E6s require 36 charging posts (in the absence of fast charging). According to reports, although the charging equipment is not expensive, the charging equipment is less than 100,000 yuan, and the slow charging equipment is cheaper. However, it is unbearable for the taxi companies to build a high land cost for the charging pile.

The construction of charging stations will be the main factor affecting the promotion of pure electric vehicles in the future. The government's investment and guidance in this area will be the main driving factors. Like electric vehicles, the future construction of charging stations still requires government support and subsidies. Government agencies, airports, and hotels will be the focus of development in the future. At present, CNOOC, National Grid, China Southern Power Grid, PetroChina, and Sinopec are actively involved in the construction and planning of charging stations, of which the former three have the highest enthusiasm for development. At present, the Shenzhen Municipal Government has built two charging stations. Putian Offshore Oil and China Southern Power Grid are the investment protagonists.

Another factor that is closely related to the cruising range is the capacity of the power battery. This is a dilemma: if you need to install more batteries in order to increase the voyage, your mileage will increase the power consumption. Decreasing, use costs and manufacturing costs increase. Without the battery pack, it will be difficult to reach the battery life. Taking the BYD E6 taxi as an example, the weight of the BYD E6 taxi is 2.35 tons, which is much higher than the weight of the average mid-size car. The important reason for this phenomenon is that the weight of its power battery reaches 0.9 tons. Therefore, the lighter weight of the model becomes an urgent requirement. .

Yuan Tao laughed and said, "You can easily increase your cruising range by filling the car with batteries, but the car will be quite bulky."

In terms of cost, compared with traditional internal combustion engine vehicles, the high cost of first-time car purchases for pure electric vehicles will be a major problem in the marketization of electric vehicles. At present, the market development of electric vehicles is aimed at institutional customers who are not sensitive to price and corporate customers who are committed to promoting the image of energy conservation and emission reduction. However, the commercialization of electric vehicles will eventually enter the mass consumers. According to the current cost, at the private car level, because of the small number of miles traveled in the year, even under the current subsidy policy of RMB 120,000, it is difficult to obtain cost advantages. Therefore, reducing material and manufacturing costs and achieving large-scale production are crucial. In this regard, many experts and scholars have proposed lowering the threshold of electric vehicles. For example, Ouyang Minggao, an expert from Tsinghua University, said that the development of small electric vehicles is one of the important trends and breakthroughs. Hangzhou Zotye Automobile has launched a lead-acid version of the electric vehicle for the rural market to replace the higher-priced lithium-ion battery electric vehicle. Its goal is to control the price of the car at 4-5 million yuan to meet consumers at different levels. Demand.

Yuan Tao pointed out that the cost of batteries in electric vehicles is relatively large, accounting for almost half of the cost, with the stability of the quantity and the improvement of the stability rate of one-time finished products. With the innovation of the new material system, the cost of the battery will Gradually falling, it is likely to be a substantial decline.

In addition, the current non-uniform standards will potentially affect the promotion of electric vehicles throughout the country. According to Du Guozhong, the manager of BYD Public Relations, there are no uniform charging interface standards and battery recycling standards. In battery products, it is urgent to establish a unified industry standard to facilitate the replacement of the battery by the charging station to achieve the purpose of rapid energy supplement.

Analysts pointed out that at present, due to the implementation of local subsidies for the subsidies for electric vehicles, the five subsidized cities all belong to the car companies, so the focus of the subsidies will undoubtedly fall on the local car companies, this painting is a prison situation to increase the electric car The nationwide promotion, if the standards are not unified again, then the promotion of electric vehicles in different places will be even more difficult.

Commercialization is still a long way

Up to now, the sales of electric vehicles have been unsatisfactory. BYD and Zotye have each sold a pure electric vehicle to private individuals, and the number of government procurement is not optimistic.

"Anyway, electric vehicles must ultimately be commercialized like traditional cars." Wang Binggang, head of the supervision team for major projects of the National 863 Program for New Energy Vehicles, said that in order to promote electric vehicles, consumers are allowed to accept electric vehicles. Various ways of promotion, but it is difficult to say which way is best. After all, electric cars have changed people's travel habits. Consumers accept electric vehicles because of the current inconvenience of charging facilities, the fact that the range of electric vehicles does not last long, and the technical performance of the batteries of electric vehicles still needs to be improved. Still need a process. Constrained by the problem of cruising range, electric cars are not an ideal result as a taxi.

Luo Lei commented that electric vehicles are new things not only in China but also in the world. They are currently at the stage of exploration and all need to open the market through various business models. BYD and Chery have adopted different sales methods than traditional ones, which are conducive to the promotion of new energy vehicles. In contrast, Luo Lei believes that Chery’s “rent-to-buy” model may be more viable. “Before consumers do not buy, they lease new energy vehicles at relatively low prices, similar to foreign car finance leases. Closer to the consumer."

Sales dilemma does not stop the country’s strong support for new energy vehicles. The "New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan" drafted by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology was exposed in August. The "Planning" proposes that by 2020, the industrialization of new energy vehicles and the scale of the market will reach the top in the world. Among them, the number of new energy vehicles (plug-in hybrid vehicles, pure electric vehicles, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, etc.) reached 5 million; the sales of energy-saving cars represented by hybrid vehicles reached the top in the world, and the annual sales reached 1,500. 10,000 cars.

The "plan" also suggests that during the ten years from 2011 to 2020, the central government will invest 100 billion yuan in huge amounts of money. Among them, RMB 50 billion is a special fund for the development of energy-saving and new energy auto industry, focusing on supporting key technologies for R&D and industrialization, promoting joint development mechanisms such as public platforms, RMB 30 billion to support the demonstration and promotion of new energy vehicles, and RMB 20 billion for Promote energy-saving cars that focus on hybrid vehicles.

With the support of hundreds of millions of millions of dollars in investment in the country, can the sporadic sales be able to achieve snowball-like development and eventually achieve the long-term goal of 5 million new energy vehicles? Yuan Tao believes that the rapid development of new energy vehicles ultimately depends on whether the technology is advanced and reliable. “If the technology continues to improve, why is it impossible to reach 5 million?”

Luo Lei also pointed out that government support will drive the promotion and sales of new energy vehicles. However, new energy vehicles must achieve the goal of commercial sales in order to allow consumers to truly experience the advantages of new energy vehicles.