“The price of rare earths is still rising. There are goods that are not waiting to go up. If you want to add more money, you can’t buy them.†The old Wang who is doing rare earth business in Ganzhou, Jiangxi, worriedly said that this bubble is a bit big, if broken, How to do?
He praised his latest offer, which shows that rare earth prices have continued to rise since May. Of these, May 6th, cerium oxide 102,000 yuan / ton. The price of antimony oxide is 152,000 yuan/ton, that of antimony oxide is 58,000 yuan/ton, and that of antimony oxide is 68,000 yuan/ton. In the price of rare earth metals, the price of metal antimony is RMB 160,000/ton, and the price of antimony metal has also risen to RMB 715,000/ton. In his view, the current hot money is not only hoarding rare earth ore, but extended to the entire product chain of rare earth. Whether it is the record-breaking rare earth price or the business of “selling not sell goods,†the entire industry’s “floating†makes him worry.
Rare earth is called "industrial vitamin" and it is widely used in industries such as engineering and electronics. It is an important strategic mineral resource. China is a major producer of rare earths. In order to protect the rational development of rare earth resources, the government has successively introduced a series of related policies in recent years. The rare earths have ended the history of “selling†and prices have “floatedâ€.
In fact, since the beginning of this year, rare earth oxides and rare earth concentrates have both increased by more than 200%. Industry data show that in the first quarter of 2011, rare earth prices soared, yttria increased by 342% over the beginning of the period; yttria increased by 37%; bismuth oxide rose by 124%; bismuth oxide rose by 168%; bismuth oxide rose by 141%; bismuth oxide rose by 161%; Antimony oxide increased by 104%.
"Rare earths are more like a concept, and the capital market can soar as long as it is affiliated with rare earths." Baotou rare earth source told reporters. Taking Baotou Steel Rare Earth as an example, according to the quarterly report released by the company, its operating income in the first quarter was 2.116 billion yuan, an increase of 116.05% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 483 million yuan, an increase of 276.96% year-on-year; basic earnings per share 0.599 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 276.96%, analysts have given "to maintain the target price of 150 yuan unchanged," "highly recommended" and other comments.
It is worth noting that while the concept of "rare earth" was buoyant in the capital market, the price bubble of domestic rare earths has been increasing. In an interview, the reporter learned that, since this year, hot money from various regions has entered the market one after another to accumulate rare earth ore and finished products. At the same time, there have been numerous phenomena of private mining indiscriminately. On the other hand, driven by high spreads at home and abroad, the wind of resale of rare earth export quotas has begun to grow.
Correspondingly, the skyrocketing prices have spawned foreign rare earth mining heat. It is understood that since last year, including Japan, the United States, Australia and other countries have begun to announce the redevelopment of rare earth resources. Among them, Australia's Mount Weld, the United States' M otaintain Pass, Canada’s Ho id as L ak e, Canada’s N echalacho, Australia’s D ubbo, and Australia’s N olans are more likely to start production in 2015.
The rapid progress of rare earth mining in foreign countries, coupled with the dual factors of the domestic rare earth price bubble soaring, also triggered the industry's doubts about the current "high foam" sustainability of rare earth. The latest report from Goldman Sachs predicts that as Western companies start new mines and compete with Chinese companies that currently dominate the market, by 2013 there will likely be an oversupply. Goldman Sachs believes that the supply shortage will reach the highest value of 18,734 tons this year, equivalent to 13.2% of the estimated demand of 141,524 tons. By 2013, the market will shift to supply slightly more than demand. Specifically, the supply surplus will rise to 5,860 tons in 2014, accounting for 3.2% of the estimated demand.
“China's rare earth supply and demand are expected to reach a basic balance after 2015.†An analyst at Guotai Junan estimates that by 2015 global output of rare earth oxides will reach around 240,000 tons, a compound annual growth rate of 15%. From the perspective of production, foreign rare earth production will rise to 40% to 50% of global production. As foreign demand for rare earths in China decreases, the domestic and foreign price gaps caused by Chinese restrictions on exports will gradually decline.
"We should be wary of the rare earth price bubble bursting," said Heng Kun, chief analyst of Essence Securities. However, he believes that the current supply and demand relationship is unlikely to change. Because foreign countries have strict environmental restrictions on the development and smelting of rare earth mines, there are uncertainties in several projects currently under preparation for production. With the expected changes in supply and demand, rare earth prices will also be pulled back after soaring, this signal will appear at the earliest in the same period next year. "It is worth noting that because of the speculation of the current speculative funds, rare earth prices have deviated from the track and rose sharply. Once the expectations change, the price may experience an abnormal decline, which is very detrimental to the industry," he said.
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