A related person at Qinhuangdao Port stated that “summer coal peaks or early arrivals, the continuous decline in coal stocks at the port will affect the operation of thermal power plants.†BOC International expects that during the overhaul of Daqin Railway in April (overhauled for 3 hours a day), Qinhuangdao's inventory may decline to About 5 million tons. According to estimates, about 22% of coal shipments will be affected during the overhaul period of Daqin Railway.
According to another analysis, coal mine safety accidents have frequently occurred in various localities. Government departments require that the safety inspection of coal mines and the review and acceptance of small coal mines resume production be further strengthened, which will also inhibit the large-scale release of coal mine production.
Lin Boqiang, director of the China Energy Economic Research Center at Xiamen University, told reporters that from April to May, the power plant stored coal ahead of schedule, rising sea freight due to oil prices, and post-earthquake reconstruction in Japan would all drive international coal prices to rise again. The domestic market demand for coal in the second quarter May exceed expectations.
The reporter learned from the China Energy Network and other agencies that under the combined effects of the Daqin Line overhaul, Qinhuangdao Port inventory coal declining, and Shaanxi and Shaanxi accelerating the integration of coal resources, the coal market will become increasingly tense.
Among them, the growth of coal in East China is significant, thermal power plant in East China 5,500 calories of thermal coal prices per ton price of 10 yuan, the value of high-quality thermal coal in a short period of 20 days has risen by 15 yuan per ton.
Ren Haoning, a researcher in the energy industry at China Investment Advisors, pointed out that at present, the traditional demand for thermal coal is in the off-season, while port coal prices have risen. On the one hand, due to the maintenance of the Daqin Line, the supply of coal in the northern ports has decreased; on the other hand, high international coal prices have resulted in The decline in domestic coal imports forced the southern coastal power plants to increase coal purchases from northern ports.
In addition, Han Xiaoping, Chief Information Officer of China Energy Network, told reporters: "Compared with the decline in inventories and price increases, the freight pressure caused by the rise in international oil prices has a greater impact on thermal power companies."
Lin Boqiang said: “In April and May, the demand for power plants for restocking will increase. At this time, the inventory of ports and power plants will decline, which will certainly increase the operating pressure of thermal power companies. If only ten days and a half months, the thermal power companies’ inventory can also meet the demand for power generation. However, if there is a long-term shortage, it may cause some thermal power units to stop running."
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